The Central Bank published on June 26, 2024, its monetary policy report which revises the inflation forecasts for this year, raising the estimate for the end of 2026. According to the document, inflation is expected to reach 3.9%, above the 3.5% forecasted in December 2023, directly reflecting the effects of the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran.
The forecast for the accumulated index in the first quarter of 2026 was also updated, rising to 3.6%. On the other hand, the Central Bank maintains the projection of 1.6% GDP growth for this year, although it highlights risks associated with the international crisis. For 2027, the report indicates that inflation should be around 3.3% in the third quarter, while for 2028 the estimate is 3.1%, slightly above the official target of 3%.
The document attributes the acceleration of inflation mainly to the increase in oil and gas prices, commodities impacted by the instability caused by the conflict. Furthermore, it emphasizes the possibility of greater effects if the dispute prolongs, especially if the closure of the Strait of Hormuz persists, which may further pressure imported energy costs.
In turn, the Central Bank’s report warns of the seriousness of the situation, pointing out that an expansion of the conflict in the region could generate considerable and long-term economic consequences. Therefore, economic projections remain volatile, depending on the geopolitical developments in the coming weeks.
The conclusion of the process indicated that analyses will continue, especially regarding the impact of international prices on domestic inflation. Thus, the monetary authority will closely monitor the developments of the conflict to adjust its forecasts and future decisions.
