On March 18, 2026, the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) decided to reduce the Selic rate by 0.25 percentage points, bringing the index to 14.75% per year. Prior to this change, the rate remained unchanged at 15% for the previous nine months, maintaining one of the highest levels in the world.
After the adjustment, Brazil continued with a real interest rate of approximately 9.51%, according to data from the ranking prepared on March 17, 2026, by MoneYou in partnership with Lev Intelligence. This position makes the country the second with the highest global real rate, behind only Turkey, which records 10.38%.
On the other hand, Russia and Argentina present real rates close to Brazil’s, around 9.41%. Meanwhile, the global average real interest rate is 2.18%, according to the same report, demonstrating the significant disparity between economies.
This reduction in the Selic represents the first retreat since the start of the stability cycle at the 15% level. Several factors influenced the decision, including the need to balance inflation control with incentives for economic growth.
In the national financial context, large private banks showed robust performance in 2025. For example, three of these institutions achieved accumulated profits of R$ 87.1 billion, which reinforces the importance of the interest rate for the banking sector and for the dynamics of the economy.
Thus, the change promoted by Copom opens new perspectives for the financial market and for the conduct of monetary policy in 2026. The decision still needs to be closely monitored by financial institutions and economic analysts who track the effects of the Selic rate on inflation and internal economic growth.
Economic Context and Budgetary Impacts
The payment of interest and amortizations of public debt reached R$ 2.1 trillion in 2025, reflecting the persistence of high fiscal costs for the federal government. For the year 2026, the budget plans to allocate R$ 1.8 trillion to these expenses, which represents 42.24% of the total budget forecast for the period. Thus, almost half of the budget resources will be committed solely to public debt.
Furthermore, the distribution of budget resources to essential areas shows a strong disparity. The budget allocated to Health in 2026 amounts to about 10% of the amount reserved for public debt, while Education will receive only 3.18% of the federal budget. Finally, Environmental Management is expected to have 0.39% of the resources, indicating a much more restricted investment in these areas.
Regarding economic performance, Brazil’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) recorded growth of 2.3% in 2025, a figure lower than the 3.4% observed in 2024. This more modest advance in the previous year was primarily sustained by commodity exports, which remain a relevant driver for the country. However, this pace shows signs of slowdown in the national economy.
Another indicator that highlights social and economic challenges is the decline in the average formal admission salary, which dropped from R$ 2,433 in January 2020 to R$ 2,389 in January 2026, already considering inflation. At the same time, recent data indicate that nearly 80% of Brazilian families are in debt, reflecting the impact of economic conditions on the population.
The budgetary and economic scenario suggests that the effort to contain high interest rates, currently at 14.75%, has direct effects on the government’s ability to release resources for social and environmental areas. Additionally, the high indebtedness of families and the moderation in GDP growth indicate that the impact of high interest rates should continue influencing key sectors of the economy in 2026.
