On February 27, 2024, gold was trading near 4,400 dollars per ounce, a value that represents a 25% drop from the peak recorded the previous month. The price reached its lowest level since January of the same year, influenced by international factors related to the geopolitical scenario in the Middle East.
The volatile movement in gold prices is directly associated with instability in the region, which has fueled debates about global economic and financial risks. Additionally, high energy prices have increased concerns about inflation in the markets, affecting demand for the precious metal as a protective asset.
In the political sphere, the President of the United States, Donald Trump, announced the postponement of planned attacks against Iran, citing positive negotiations as the main reason. On the other hand, the Iranian government classified these statements as a form of psychological warfare, while reports indicate indirect negotiations between the two countries on the same day as the gold quotation.
Meanwhile, an Israeli official told CNN that a ceasefire in the regional conflict is still out of reach. At the same time, the Wall Street Journal reported that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates may get directly involved in the tension, increasing uncertainties surrounding the conflict.
The Israeli Defense Minister reinforced the intention to maintain attacks against Iran at full strength, which contributes to the ongoing instability and heightens the risk scenario perceived by investors. This environment of conflict and regional tension directly impacts decisions in the global commodities market.
In the financial sphere, markets have dismissed expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2026. Investors, in turn, continue to prepare for additional monetary tightening promoted by central banks in various parts of the world, reflecting growing concerns about inflation and economic stability.
Thus, the price of gold remains sensitive to fluctuations generated by geopolitics and international monetary policies. The conclusion of the process still depends on the evolution of negotiations in the Middle East, as well as the decisions of central banks monitoring the global economic scenario.
