The Interbank Deposit (DI) rate for January 2027 closed this Thursday (2) at 14.035%, registering a decline from 14.105% in the previous adjustment. This reduction occurs amid expectations of progress in diplomatic negotiations that may impact the economic scenario.
Still, the DI rate for January 2029 ended the trading session at 13.675%, below the previous closing of 13.725%. This points to a trend of gradual decline in projections for longer terms, reflecting interpretations on future movements of the Brazilian financial market.
On the other hand, the DI rate for January 2036 showed an increase, finishing the day at 13.870%, compared to 13.855% in the previous session, registering a rise of 0.15 percentage points. This rise suggests greater caution by investors on the more distant horizon, even with the adjustments observed in the short and medium terms.
In the United States, the two-year Treasury yield closed at 3.805%, slightly above the 3.799% recorded in the previous adjustment. Although the variation is modest, it reveals relative stability in short-term U.S. market securities.
Similarly, the ten-year Treasury yield rose to 4.321%, compared to 4.311% in the previous close. Thus, the increase accompanies a movement that may indicate a careful evaluation by investors regarding long-term economic prospects in the United States.
Therefore, rates in Brazil show mixed behavior, while in the U.S. there is a slight increase, especially in longer-term securities. This dynamic reflects the influence of global expectations on monetary policies and geopolitical risks.
Economic and Geopolitical Context Influencing the Brazilian Market
Petrobras announced an average adjustment of approximately 55% in the price of aviation kerosene for distributors, valid for the month of April. However, the state-owned company also presented the possibility of parceling this increase over the months of April, May, and June, attempting to soften the impact on the domestic market.
Meanwhile, expectations regarding the Selic rate, the main monetary policy instrument of the Central Bank, undergo important changes. On October 31, market options on B3 indicated a 37.5% probability of a 25 basis-point cut in Selic in April. On the other hand, the chance of a 50 basis-point reduction rose to 27%, an increase from the previously recorded 23%.
At the same time, the possibility of the committee maintaining the Selic at 14.75% per year dropped to 15%. Still, before the Middle East conflict intensified, the probability of a 50 basis-point cut in April was significantly higher, reaching 77.5%. The scenario shows how geopolitical tensions influence the decisions of the Brazilian market.
On the international front, the Middle East conflict had already lasted 32 days as of October 31, with negotiations being closely monitored between the United States and Iran. Then-President Donald Trump stated on Truth Social that Iran had requested a ceasefire, which was denied by Iranian government spokespeople and the Revolutionary Guard. Trump also emphasized that the U.S. intended to exit the region quickly while maintaining the capability to carry out targeted attacks if necessary.
Additionally, Bloomberg sources reported that Trump planned to accelerate the timetable for ending the conflict, aiming to conclude it within two to three weeks. These political and military movements strongly influenced the price of oil, which soared, pressuring fuel costs in Brazil and altering expectations for Selic cuts.
Overall, interest rate fluctuations reflect the Brazilian market’s reaction to international instability and adjustments in oil prices. The initiatives adopted by Petrobras to flexibilize the kerosene adjustment aim to mitigate the effect of these variables on the airline sector and the domestic economy.
