Brazilian companies accumulate billion-dollar debts amid the high basic interest rate, which was at 15% per year. Maintaining this level strains the financial sustainability even of companies considered healthy, according to a warning from the CEO of BR Partners. Although the Central Bank reduced the Selic rate to 14.75% on March 29, 2024, the impact on company balance sheets is still significant.
Among the companies facing severe financial difficulties are Braskem, GPA, Ambipar, Oncoclínicas, Cosan, and Raízen, all involved in judicial recovery processes due to accumulated indebtedness. Thus, the scenario highlights the pressure that the high cost of capital exerts on various sectors of the national economy.
Additionally, experts have signaled that the Selic rate reduction cycle will be brief and with moderate cuts, which keeps the financial scenario challenging for companies. The real interest rate, discounted for inflation, remained at 9.51% in March 2024, making debt renegotiation and leveraging new investments difficult.
BR Partners emphasized that the combination of high interest rates and the current economic environment harms company performance, even when their operations are considered stable. Consequently, risks of financial collapse persist in various sectors, reinforcing the need for attention to the macroeconomic measures adopted by the Central Bank.
Foreign investments and the dynamics of the Brazilian financial market
BR Partners carried out a technical listing of its shares on Nasdaq in 2024, without conducting a public offering. This move reinforces the institution’s presence in the international market, even though direct capital raising did not occur in this operation.
International funds hold the majority of shares in Banco BR Partners, focusing particularly on financial sector small caps. This configuration shows foreign interest in specific segments of the Brazilian market that have growth potential.
In February 2024, B3 registered an average daily traded volume (ADTV) of R$ 39.2 billion, the second highest in the history of the São Paulo stock exchange. This performance indicates greater liquidity and activity in the national stock market, fostering increased participation from foreign investors.
For 2025, there is an expectation of an increase in foreign capital returns directed to Brazil. Recent data highlight that the real interest rate in the country is at 9.51%, positioning Brazil only behind Turkey among the 40 largest global economies in this metric.
Analyst Matheus Guimarães, from XP, reported holding about 20 meetings with international investors interested in equities and structured credit in Brazil. This volume of meetings signals growing interest in financial opportunities in Brazilian territory.
According to global hedge funds, Brazilian exchange rate volatility over the past 12 to 24 months was lower than that recorded in G7 countries. This aspect may contribute to the perception of greater stability and, consequently, attract external resources.
On the other hand, foreign funds point out that Brazil’s risk premium is no longer aligned with current inflation. This mismatch may influence future investment decisions, especially in the context of high interest rates and a challenging economic scenario.
The conclusion of the process still depends on ongoing evaluation by foreign investors, who monitor both macroeconomic conditions and local market dynamics over the coming months.
