In March 2024, the Central Bank reduced the Selic rate to 14.75%, marking an important shift in the conduct of monetary policy. However, the Director of Monetary Policy, Nilton David, stated on May 8, 2024, that the interest rate still has room for adjustments compared to the scenario six months ago.
Nilton David highlighted that the conflict in Iran causes a shock in international prices, which may pressure inflation in Brazil. For this reason, the Central Bank has maintained monetary policy at a restrictive level, considering not only internal conditions but also external influences that may affect inflation projections.
The financial institution expressed concern about inflation expectations for the coming years, which remain high. Thus, these external pressures and domestic economic outlook sustain the decision not to quickly ease the interest rate.
Therefore, constant monitoring of international variables, such as the impact of the Middle East conflict, will be fundamental to defining the next steps of monetary policy. Additionally, the Central Bank’s actions seek to ensure that inflation targets are met, even amid external uncertainties.
Energy Sectors and Brazilian Exports
In March 2024, Brazilian oil exports reached the second highest historic level, reflecting growing international demand. China, in turn, increased its purchases to a record volume, acquiring 1.6 million barrels daily of the national fuel. This movement is directly linked to the global reorganization of the energy market, driven by the war in the Middle East.
Minister Alexandre Silveira emphasized that one of the government’s priorities is to achieve self-sufficiency in diesel and cooking gas production. To that end, measures are underway to expand refining capacities and strengthen internal extraction of these fuels. This approach aims to reduce the country’s vulnerability to external fluctuations.
Silveira also highlighted that mixed-capital companies show greater resilience in the face of crises compared to fully public organizations. This factor is considered crucial to ensure the stability of the energy sector during times of international instability, such as the current scenario resulting from the conflict in Iran. Furthermore, this characteristic is seen as an important competitive differential for national companies.
Finally, the recovery of exports and the strategy to internalize fuel production gain relevance for Brazil in the current geopolitical context. The country seeks not only to maintain its share in the global market but also to strengthen internal energy security, ensuring stable supply and controlled prices for the population and industry.
