The volume of economic stimulus in 2026 is projected at R$ 742 billion, an increase of 139% compared to 2025. This amount equals 5.4% of the Brazilian Gross Domestic Product (GDP), reflecting the intensification of public policies to foster economic growth this year.
The National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES) will play a central role by expanding the credit supply, contributing to the liquidity expansion in the market. Furthermore, payroll-deductible credit in the private sector is expected to grow significantly, which should boost household consumption, especially among workers with fixed incomes.
On the other hand, state and municipal governments will have greater availability of financial resources for stimulus actions, resulting from measures that increase the cash flow of these administrations. In this way, local policies can be more active, complementing federal efforts to revitalize the economy.
The Income Tax exemption will be extended to individuals with monthly earnings of up to R$ 5,000, which expands the number of beneficiaries and helps increase household disposable income. This fiscal adjustment tends to stimulate consumption and, consequently, the circulation of money in the domestic market.
The calculation of the planned expenses includes only non-mandatory expenditures, encompassing tax incentives and parafiscal instruments adopted by the government. These resources are intended both to increase household consumption and to encourage public investments, a scenario that should directly reflect on GDP performance throughout the year.
Context and fiscal and political challenges
The ratio between public debt and Brazil’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to exceed 83% at the beginning of 2027, according to projections by the Central Bank. In 2024, this ratio was at 79.2%, indicating a significant increase in the country’s indebtedness. Furthermore, the basic interest rate, currently at 14.75% per year, hampers the expected impact of the economic stimulus packages implemented by the government.
Revenues from oil royalties are pointed out as an important support for meeting fiscal targets in 2024. However, the fiscal deficit remains a challenge, as it occurs whenever public spending exceeds collected revenues, according to official definitions. This complex situation is worsened by the high costs of financing the debt due to elevated interest rates.
On the other hand, the political environment contributes to uncertainty in the formulation of economic policies. A Datafolha survey conducted on March 7 revealed a technical tie between Flávio Bolsonaro, from the Liberal Party (PL), and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, from the Workers’ Party (PT), for the second round of the presidential elections. This tense scenario has generated investor fears over the possibility of increased public stimuli.
Incentive measures, such as support for truck drivers and the imposition of limits on credit card interest rates, are among the risks raised for the 2027 budget. Historically, government spending tends to increase in election years, often with the use of mechanisms that conceal expenditures, further complicating fiscal management.
According to the Ministry of Finance, the fiscal impulse was negative in 2025 but is expected to become positive in 2026. Still, Brazil remains attractive to foreign investors, especially compared to other emerging markets such as China and Turkey. Despite this, the combination of public account vulnerabilities and political polarization indicates significant challenges for the country’s economic management.
Thus, the current scenario demands constant attention to fiscal sustainability and political balance. The conclusion of the process still depends on decisions by the responsible authorities who will analyze the impacts of economic measures and internal disputes in the coming weeks.
