The Central Bank (CB) confirmed the expectation of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth at 1.6% for the year 2026, maintaining the same percentage previously disclosed. In 2025, GDP growth was 2.3%, mainly influenced by the performance of agriculture and livestock, which boosted the economy during the period.
Impacts of the Conflict in the Middle East
The projection for the current account deficit in 2026 was revised downward, from 60 billion to 58 billion dollars, reflecting the adjustment in expectations given the international scenario. Furthermore, the net flow of foreign direct investments (FDI) in the country is estimated at 70 billion dollars, signaling a favorable environment for capital inflow, even though the geopolitical context remains challenging.
On the other hand, the possibility of inflation exceeding the target ceiling of 4.5% for 2026 increased from 23% to 30%, indicating greater price volatility. Meanwhile, inflation projected by the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) for 2024 is 3.6%, and for the third quarter of 2027, the forecast is a progressive reduction to 3.3%, followed by 3.1% in the same period of 2028.
Within the scope of monetary policy, the benchmark interest rate, Selic, was adjusted in July 2024, reducing from 15% to 14.75% per year. However, between September 2024 and June 2025, there were seven consecutive increases in the Selic rate, reflecting the Central Bank’s effort to control inflation. The total credit balance in the National Financial System grew 10.3% in 2025, below the 11.5% recorded in the previous year.
Projections indicate credit growth for 2026, with an estimated increase of 9% in general lending. For free credit directed to individuals, the forecast is a rise of 9.5%, while directed credit for legal entities is expected to expand by 11.5%. These numbers indicate expansion in access to credit, which may stimulate consumption and investment.
The conclusion of the process of analyzing these projections by the Central Bank still depends on the ongoing evaluation of internal and external economic conditions. The institution will continue monitoring the impacts of the conflict in the Middle East, as well as other factors that may influence the country’s economic stability and monetary policy.
